Significant uncertainty around tariff policy complicates precise estimates of construction cost impacts. One model projects a $27 billion annual construction tariff impact by 2030 and a $17,500 per-new-home cost. NAHB data forecast $7,500 to $10,000 per single-family home, while a builder survey found an average estimated increase of $10,900 and noted 40% of builders had not yet seen impacts. Changing rules and model assumptions drive variation across forecasts. Individual builder estimates vary, with one large builder projecting about a $5,000 increase per home once full effects materialize.
"The Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, released a report on Tuesday that forecasted a $17,500 cost impact per new home as a result of the Trump Administration's tariff policy. The report used an analysis from the nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center to make the forecast, based on a model that predicts a $27 billion annual construction tariff impact by 2030."
"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released data in March forecasting that tariffs would have a cost impact of $7,500 to $10,000 per single-family home. Additionally, in May, the organization released survey data revealing that builders estimate an average cost increase of $10,900 per home due to tariff actions, but 40% of respondents hadn't seen any impacts yet. NAHB hasn't released further estimates due to the uncertain climate."
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