"Despite recent trade and foreign policy turbulence, a close look at the data suggests that predictions of globalization's collapse are overstated."
"Global trade has continued to grow, most countries are expanding-not retreating from-international trade agreements, and U.S. tariffs, while disruptive, are constrained by exemptions, economic realities, legal limits, and public opinion."
Recent trade and foreign policy turbulence has not produced a collapse in globalization. Global trade volumes have continued to increase across major economies. Most countries are expanding, not retreating from, international trade agreements and regional cooperation frameworks. U.S. tariffs have introduced disruptions to specific sectors and supply chains, but widespread impact is limited by extensive exemptions and carve-outs. Economic interdependence and market incentives reduce incentives for prolonged tariff escalation. Legal constraints and public opinion also limit tariff expansion. Overall, structural and political factors have preserved the trajectory of global trade growth.
Read at Harvard Business Review
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