#gita-gopinath

#gita-gopinath

The World Bank's recent report argues that government intervention, when done right, can actually be an essential ingredient of economic success, reversing decades of opposition to industrial policy.

We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false. Just because Canada benefited from it didn't hide the fact that it was unfair. The rules didn't apply equally to everyone. The strongest would exempt themselves when convenient. Power, not principle, set the terms.

Services experienced the highest annual increase at 3.4%, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.5%. Non-energy industrial goods saw a more modest increase of 0.7%. Meanwhile, energy prices fell by 3.1% over the month, which helped to temper overall inflation pressures.

Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.

Growth lost momentum in the second half of 2025 as consumers, anxious about tax increases and rising unemployment, held back. There was hope, spurred on by various indicators, that they'd start 2026 with renewed vigour. But the official data, while volatile and prone to revision, suggested the economy stalled in January.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rates unchanged following the February meeting of the Governing Council, in line with Cebr projections. This marks the fifth consecutive hold, despite a below-target inflation reading of 1.7% in January, the lowest level since 2021. The decision to hold rates also comes despite a recent Euro rally against the dollar, which is expected to add disinflationary pressure through cheaper imports and weigh on growth by making the bloc's exports more expensive.

Economist Claudia Sahm is an expert (if not the expert) on the conditions that presage a recession and how policymakers should react as a result. She is the creator of "the Sahm Rule," an employment indicator monitored by everyone from central banks to the global financial giants. The Sahm Rule says that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous year.

Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

U.S. financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors weighed strong employment data against growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models. Major stock indexes declined, led by technology-heavy shares, reflecting worries that rapid AI developments may disrupt established industries and earnings outlooks. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the steepest losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower. Value-oriented stocks continued to outperform growth stocks, extending a trend that has persisted for several weeks.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

Markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, compressing the week's activity into four sessions. Early in the week, stocks fell sharply after renewed concerns about a potential global trade conflict. Investor sentiment weakened following comments from President Donald Trump about imposing tariffs on certain European nations in connection with negotiations over Greenland. However, midweek optimism returned when the president signalled a softer stance and postponed the planned tariffs.

Employers added a healthy 130,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said this week, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The caveat? That announcement came with revisions that showed job creation flatlined over the last year, with only 15,000 jobs being added per month on average. Service sectors like finance and professional services that normally power the creation of high-paying office positions have instead been shedding jobs, perhaps reflecting employers' anticipation of AI-related cost savings.

A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations - and it may even be better than some traditional methods. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers," the researchers wrote.

The modal Kalshi forecast, or the outcome deemed most likely by traders, has had a perfect track record from 2022 through June. "We find the Kalshi median and mode have a perfect forecast record on the day before the FOMC meeting which represents a statistically significant improvement over the fed funds futures forecast," the study's authors Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright wrote.

Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.