#gold--currencies

#gold--currencies

The Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA:DBC) is up 42% over the past year, and nearly 29% year-to-date. These gains reflect a war that has scrambled global commodity supply chains from crude oil to wheat to fertilizer.

Gold miners have been making a killing after a lull, and they're well-positioned to keep doing so. Profits are rising sharply across the industry, and they're using this to explore for even more gold.

Silver is down 17% in five days, and gold has fallen more than 10%. Precious metals have been particularly volatile amidst the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and broader market shifts. Gold fell to $4,691.70 per ounce on Thursday, while silver slipped to $70.68 per ounce.

Gold pays no interest or dividends, making its appeal highly sensitive to what investors can earn elsewhere. When real yields fall, gold becomes comparatively more attractive. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.29% in early February to 4.06% as of early March, coinciding directly with gold pushing to new highs.

Persistent tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East sustain the demand for safe-haven assets. However, the surge in oil prices raised concerns about inflationary pressures, pushing up inflation expectations and lifting Treasury yields, which could continue to weigh on gold.

On one hand, the precious metal continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset amid a tense geopolitical backdrop. On the other hand, rising inflation concerns, fuelled by higher oil prices, are affecting the outlook for monetary policy and limiting further upside.

The current decline in silver prices is not merely a temporary correction, but a deeper repricing of market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates, which remains the most influential factor in the short term for non-yielding assets.

Silver has experienced a remarkable bull market, more than quadrupling in value from around $30 (24.54) per ounce at the start of the year to an all-time high of $120.44 per ounce (28 grams) on Thursday (January 29). At the beginning of last year, the metal traded on COMEX the commodity division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) near $30 in January and hovered between $37 and $40 through the summer before breaking decisively higher.

Gold has been on a tear as the dollar is under pressure, raising questions about global confidence and market risk. The US economy and markets are unmatched in size. The dollar is the king of currencies, and US treasuries are often considered a safe-haven asset. But, investors appear to be reassessing that. This has weighed down on the greenback and cooled the stock markets.