#interest-rate-expectations

#interest-rate-expectations

Gold spot prices reached $4,829 per troy ounce at the end of the week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain. COMEX futures closed at $4,879, up 1.48%, driven by Iran's Strait of Hormuz truce and U.S. dollar weakness.

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that one-year inflation expectations rose to 3% in March, with gas price expectations jumping to 9%, the highest since March 2022.

The mortgage market is off to a strong start in 2026. Mortgage rates declining to levels not seen since September 2024 have boosted borrower demand, with both refinance and purchase applications up solidly on both a weekly and an annual basis, said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). With the spring homebuying season approaching, lower mortgage rates would be a welcome development for households looking to buy a home.

September, or more likely October, is now the realistic opportunity for a rate cut, and even that is far from guaranteed. The data coming through is not consistent with easing in July. In fact, it points in the opposite direction. Inflation is not falling fast enough. The latest wholesale inflation data shows prices rising at 3.4% year-on-year, the strongest pace in a year, and core measures are still running close to 4%.

Warsh served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest person ever appointed to that role at age 35. During the 2008 financial crisis, he was part of Ben Bernanke's inner circle and served as an intermediary with Wall Street. He negotiated survival plans for firms like Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). He later resigned from the Fed due to disagreements over its balance sheet expansion policies.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

The two precious metals, the most classic of the "safe-haven" assets, have the tangibility and inherent scarcity to act a hedge in moments of turmoil, particularly when investors worry that politics or policy could undermine the value of the dollar or U.S. government bonds. That is why the metals' relentless rally to record highs since late last year-Gold is up 84% year-over-year and silver up a whopping 245% - has drawn attention from analysts.