Gamblers understand this, perhaps like nobody else. Yes, if you think Harris is really a 55/45 favorite and prediction markets have it the other way, you have a profitable wager - but you're still going to lose the bet almost half the time.
In sports betting, the breakeven point on a point spread bet is generally 52.5 percent - that's just enough to cover the vig - but most experienced bettors would avoid the 53/47 games to reduce variance and because there's ultimately no way to know that your model is right.
In poker, you can't avoid making tough decisions - you always have to fold, raise/bet, or check/call - but many decisions in the game are so close that you're literally supposed to randomize your play.
Being unpredictable outweighs any slight edge from one line being superior to another. In election forecasts, despite perceived edges, the result can be far more uncertain.
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