Trump’s second term featured a pattern where the five best trading days produced most of the broad market’s rise, while the five worst days offset gains and left the index essentially flat when excluded. SPY rose 21.67% from the day after inauguration through May 19, 2026, closing at $733.73. From January 21, 2025 through April 8, 2025, SPY fell 17.67% from $603.05 to $496.48, followed by a sharp reversal. April 9, 2025 was the strongest day, with the S&P 500 surging more than 9% after a pause on sweeping tariffs. Volatility moved in response to tariff headlines, with VIX peaking at 31.05 on March 27, 2026 and falling to 18.06 by May 19, 2026.
"“Trump has been responsible for the five best and five worst trading days of his second term.” Strip those five up days out of the index since inauguration and the broad market is essentially flat. Leave them in and you get a respectable bull run. That is the entire story of this market in one sentence."
"The numbers back the framing. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( NYSEARCA:SPY | SPY Price Prediction) is up 21.67% from the day after inauguration through May 19, 2026, closing at $733.73. The commentator's claim that the index would be only slightly positive without those five sessions tracks with what actually happened in between: from January 21, 2025 through April 8, 2025, SPY fell 17.67%, from $603.05 to $496.48, before a single afternoon reversed most of the damage."
"The single best day of the term was April 9, 2025, when the S&P 500 surged more than 9% after Trump announced a pause on sweeping tariffs. SPY closed that week with a 5.86% gain from April 7 through April 11. That one trading session pulled the index out of a tariff-driven freefall and reset the entire narrative for the rest of the year."
"The volatility data confirms a market reacting to policy rather than earnings. The VIX peaked at 31.05 on March 27, 2026, the highest reading in the trailing 12 months, then bled lower into the 18.06 reading on May 19. That spike clustered with another in early April 2026, the same pattern that defined April 2025: tariff headline, fear gauge rips, policy walk-back, mean reversion."
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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