Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for a U.S. recession probability from 35% to 45%, anticipating negative effects from President Trump's upcoming tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%. The increase in tariffs, expected to take effect soon, could lead to significant economic disruptions, according to analysts. Citing tightening financial conditions and heightened policy uncertainty, analysts consider these tariffs as a primary factor pushing the economy towards recession. Other economists and global central bankers have voiced strong criticisms against the potential global repercussions of these tariff measures.
We expect to change our forecast to a recession.
The scale of the 'Liberation Day' tariffs exceeded expectations, creating a significant credibility issue which unsettles global markets.
Goldman analysts increased the 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tightening financial conditions and policy uncertainty.
These tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%, have faced widespread criticism for potential global harm.
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