In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said recent job numbers have been so dismal that it's possible the U.S. may already be in a recession. "I think the Federal Reserve desperately wants to avoid that kind of outcome," he added. "Obviously nobody wants a recession. But also in the context of Fed independence, they really don't want to get blamed for going into a downturn because that would impair their ability."
The last time unemployment was 5% was in August 2021. The job market was rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic, which had driven the jobless rate to 14.8% in April of the previous year. Economists often refer to 5% as "full employment." Above that level, there is a possibility of an inflationary increase. The jobless rate was 4.2% in July. It is up a fraction from 3.4% in April of last year.
The second successive monthly fall in UK GDP in May confirms that the strong growth of 0.7% reported in the first quarter was just a flash in the pan.
American consumers felt worse about the economy this month compared with May and were bracing for a potential recession, largely due to concerns over President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
The holding companies for banks such as Bridgewater Bancshares and Heartland Bank and Trust Company mentioned deportations may affect their 'forward looking statements' but weren't clear on the outcomes.
History demonstrates that relying on ideology and intuition over rigorous economic analysis leads to disastrous outcomes, as evidenced by the concerns surrounding Trump’s tariff policy.
If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns, says Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu.
It's sort of like, I get two things out of that. One, you get the sense that the Democrats, which is the media, the liberal media. That they don't want to see him succeed.
"If it's just chucking more content into the void, that isn't responsible - it's not ethical," she said. "I think it can be quite short-sighted, especially as things change quickly."