"It Really Pisses Me Off": Trump Vents on $149 Billion in Tariff Refunds He Has to Return

Supreme Court action struck down about half of last year’s Liberation Day tariffs as unconstitutional. The ruling can be addressed by rebuilding the tariff regime under different statutory authorities, but refunds are the main source of anger. Tariffs are collected at the U.S. border from the importer of record, usually a U.S. company. That company may absorb the cost, pass it downstream, or include it in retail prices. Most tariff payments are attributed to U.S. importers or U.S. consumers, making U.S. importers eligible to claim refunds. The refund amount is described as $149 billion, expected to flow largely to customs brokers and finance departments. Wholesale trade and wholesale inflation show signs consistent with importers front-running tariff schedules and stocking warehouses.

"“It really pisses me off,” he said of the Supreme Court ruling that struck down roughly half of last year's Liberation Day tariffs as unconstitutional. The ruling itself he can live with. He says he can rebuild the tariff regime under different statutory authorities, just more slowly. What galls him is the refund. “Can you imagine, to people who hate us, to countries that ripped us off for years, I've got to give them back $149 billion,” he told the magazine."

"Tariffs are collected at the U.S. border from the importer of record. The importer is almost always a U.S. company. That company either eats the cost, passes it to a downstream wholesaler, or builds it into the shelf price. Research, disputed by the White House, indicates that most of the tariffs were actually paid by U.S. companies that imported goods, or by the consumers who bought those goods. Those companies are eligible to claim refunds. So the $149 billion will, in the main, flow to the customs brokers and finance departments of American importers who have spent a year filing protective claims under 19 U.S.C. 1514 and waiting for exactly this outcome."

"The macro fingerprints are already in the data. Wholesale trade value is increasing and the wholesale inflation rate is now at 6%, the kind of spike you get when importers front-run a tariff schedule and stuff warehouses."

"Trump's own working number is the cleanest way to size the hole. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro estimated $600-700 billion a year in tariff revenue, a figure economists have called widely overstated, and now figures the new sum will be chopped nearly in half. Call it roughly $300 billio"

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