The article discusses how wage growth, job growth, and hours worked are interrelated factors influencing mortgage rates and the broader economy. It suggests that flat or declining wage growth is favorable for rates, while job growth below 100,000 is a concerning indicator that could benefit mortgage rates as well. The insights from Mohtashami suggest that upcoming labor data will be significant in assessing the impact of federal fiscal actions and private sector responsiveness. The importance of job openings data is highlighted, as it plays a crucial role in informing the Fed's future decisions and overall economic outlook.
Wage growth does not align with the Fed's goals; lower or stagnant wage growth is favorable for mortgage rates, signaling a potential positive economic trend.
As job growth slows, particularly if under 100,000, this trend becomes crucial for mortgage rates, indicating underlying economic weakness that is favorable for rate reductions.
Mohtashami emphasizes the importance of job openings data, stating that it is vital for understanding the labor market's impact on Fed policies and economic conditions.
The interaction between federal spending cuts and labor market dynamics will be pivotal, with potential consequences for the economy’s trajectory and the Fed's interest rate decisions.
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