Tariffs are fueling fears of a recession. What does it take to actually declare one?
Briefly

The Trump administration's implementation of tariffs on imports has stirred global markets and heightened recession fears among economists and consumers alike. Following the announcement, Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 45%, with the potential for revision if the tariffs are enacted. JP Morgan also raised the global recession risk to 60%, attributing this partly to possible inflation from tariffs. Despite growing calls for delay from various stakeholders, administration officials have reiterated their commitment to these tariffs, emphasizing a focus on negotiating with affected countries.
The Trump administration's new tariffs have fueled concerns over a potential recession, with Goldman raising U.S. recession odds to 45% assuming tariffs are rolled back.
JP Morgan increased the risk of a global recession to 60% post-tariff announcement, indicating the tariffs will likely spur inflation.
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