Trump is touting a smaller trade deficit. Economists paint a more complicated picture.

"President Donald Trump is working to sell his economic policies. To convince the nation that the economy is improving ahead of the midterm elections, Trump is highlighting a reduced trade deficit and high tariff revenues as his key economic accomplishments since taking office. The reality is more complicated. Economists have told Business Insider that a smaller trade deficit and a record-breaking amount of tariff revenue can be poor indicators of overall economic health at best, and signs of economic trouble at worst."

""This idea that if we lower the trade deficit, we're going to buy from US companies and we're all better off - it's seductive for people to think that way," Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in business and economics at the Pacific Research Institute, a free-market think tank, told Business Insider. "But it's just an incomplete view." "Unlike the budget deficit, the trade deficit is meaningless," Winegarden added. "It has nothing to do with affordability, and it has nothing to do with growth, so it's a complete red herring.""

""Remember when I said 'tariff' - my favorite word is 'tariff,'" Trump told a crowd in Pennsylvania, "Tariffs are bringing us hundreds of billions of dollars." "We had the worst trade deals ever made, and our country was laughed at from all over the world, but they're not laughing anymore," Trump added in the national speech last week. The White House, in a December press release, also touted that "the trade deficit has narrowed to its smallest since mid-2020" in September, citing it as "more proof that President Donald J. Trump's America First trade agenda is working.""

The presidency is promoting a reduced trade deficit and high tariff revenues as evidence that the economy is improving ahead of midterm elections. Economists counter that a smaller trade deficit and record tariff receipts can be weak or misleading measures of overall economic health and may indicate deeper problems. Critics describe the trade-deficit focus as incomplete or meaningless for assessing affordability and growth. Tariff collections can reflect distortions rather than strength. Public statements and a White House release highlight narrowing deficits and rising tariff income as proof of trade policy success, despite expert skepticism.

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