#economic-forecast

#economic-forecast

Market instability is compounded by Trump's economic policies, which are seen as harmful.

The global economic situation requires careful negotiation without erratic policy changes.

The layoffs signify an impending recession in Washington, D.C., heavily dependent on its federal workforce.

Trump's administration could significantly affect California's economy through increased tariffs and immigration crackdowns.

President Trump's influence on housing includes pressure for lower interest rates, with broader market factors potentially affecting mortgage spreads.

Goldman Sachs now sees a 35% chance of recession, up from 20%, due to economic weakness tolerance and macroeconomic adjustments.

Bond market optimism following tariff discussions hints at lower mortgage rates.

Expectations of declining bond yields are creating positive momentum in housing demand.

Housing market may revive with expected mortgage rate cuts and job growth, leading to increased home sales by 9% in 2025 and 13% in 2026.

High mortgage rates have significantly cooled the residential real estate market, creating challenges for potential homebuyers.

Goldman Sachs predicts S&P 500 could reach 6,500, fueled by strong earnings but jeopardized by geopolitical tensions and inflation risks.

Investors favor blue-chip dividend stocks for stable income and total return potential.

The stock market has surged significantly, with predictions for continued growth despite concerns over valuation and potential downturns.

Investors are encouraged to consider less-correlated dividend stocks amid stock market volatility.

MCD, MDLZ, and CCI are highlighted as attractive options for passive income investors.

The Government is projected to miss housing targets for the next three years due to declining construction activity.

The Spring Statement is not a Budget; it primarily serves as a forecast, indicating limited economic maneuvering.

Consumer spending significantly contributed to U.S. economic growth in late 2024.

Global sales of personal luxury goods are expected to shrink in 2025, potentially impacted by tariffs and global economic challenges.

Germany's growth forecast for 2025 has been slashed to zero due to US trade policy uncertainty, though public spending plans could help.

The Independent emphasizes the need for on-the-ground journalism, especially during critical socio-political moments.

The EY Item Club projects slower economic growth for the UK in 2025, impacting government fiscal plans.

The UK economy experienced a slight growth in August, indicating potential recovery despite broader challenges.

Business confidence has declined due to rising tax concerns, jeopardizing investment and overall economic stability in the UK.

The UK economy expanded by 0.3% in 2023, tripling previous growth estimates, indicating a quicker recovery than anticipated.

The UK economy is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2024, with household consumption expected to rise significantly afterwards.

The UK may enter a recession as GDP growth is expected to stall.

Mortgage rates could decrease further but require economic weakness and Fed policy adjustments.

Better mortgage spreads and softer labor market conditions are essential for lowering rates.

A stock market correction could lead to more investment in the bond market, reducing yields.

The labor market remains solid but is softening to stabilize mortgage rates.

Job growth persists in health care and government, contrasting with manufacturing declines.

Potential rate cuts may occur in 2025 if inflation trends continue downwards, contrasting some market expectations of rate hikes.

Mortgage rates could stabilize between 5.75% and 7.25% in 2024, depending on labor market conditions and mortgage spreads.

Future mortgage rates are influenced by expectations of economic performance, labor data, and mortgage spread trends.

2025 may be defined by escalating political tensions and societal challenges, reminiscent of issues depicted in Billy Joel's iconic lyrics.

ING's chief economist warns of economic risks from Trump’s return, specifically his protectionist policies impacting European stability.

The Federal Reserve surprised markets with a 50 bps interest rate cut, but remains behind optimal rate targets.

The Fed's recent interest rate cut won't significantly lower mortgage rates for homebuyers. Long-term projections indicate rates may remain high through 2025.

US GDP grew at 2.8%, slightly below expectations, indicating healthy growth despite challenges.

US labour market report adds uncertainty to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping markets on edge with a stronger inclination towards easing than likely to be delivered.